This week, the price of bitcoin pulled out strongly from the depths of
$403, forming a triple bottom on a rising trend line, for a firm launch
at $420. For some time now, $420 has been a significant resistance
level, pushing back on price at a series of attempts to break above it.

This week, a strong green candlestick broke sharply through this level,
accompanied by volume. It followed through to $427, but, price has been
retracing this top since March 27. After a leg break up, a retracement
is only natural. As of writing this, price is at $422 and looks set to
retest $420 previously resistance, now turned support.

Oracle Seven from
thinks so too:

“That spike was on heavy volume and then the volume went away, so not
surprising it is dropping without any continued buy pressure to keep it
up there.”

The above 12 hour chart from Bitstamp, shows how much little activity
there has been over the month of March. The price sell off on March 5,
bottomed out at $382 and quickly retraced back. Since then, the price
has been in a dull sideways trend, offering little in terms of whether
the market is in for an upside or downside breakout. Seen here below, is
a 3 day chart on Bitstamp, a symmetrical triangle that continues to
converge to a breakout point.

There is really not much to do here, besides waiting it out. The market
is wholly cognizant of this converging trend, and everyone is expecting
a breakout. This week’s brief run was a high risk shot at breaking the
upper trendline, but was pushed back by the triangle’s descending

Slowmoon of reddit says:

“Failed to break out. Back down to test bottom of triangle, IMO.”

A double top attempt at breaking the sloping trendline resistance seems
likely here marked by (3), similar to (1) and (2). Therefore, the
current retracement may find a low to launch a second attempt at a break
out. 50% retracement of the $403 – $427 swing comes in at around
$415, a decent level to bounce off.

Price is still stuck within the triangle, and only time will tell
whether it is an upward or downward breakout.

Some analysts, like Paul Sproge are cautious, and are expecting a
significant bearish drop. He believes this brief run up to be a
deceptive move by big money traders and
says on

“Don’t buy into this pump. Big money running up price to sell into bids
before significant price drop. This happened 1/8, 2/21, 2/29”

Bitcoin Next Gen Safe Asset Class

This week, a pleasant surprise in form of a blog article titled, Is
Bitcoin a Safe Asset
opined by Vice President of St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, David
Andolfatto. David breaks down the qualities of Bitcoin and compares it
to other safe asset classes in the past. He believes, it has all the
properties necessary to be a store of value in an event of monetary

“I think that Bitcoin could be the world’s next great safe asset. At
least, it certainly seems to have all the properties that are desired in
a safe asset.”

It is a refreshing read from a mainstream finance professional, a Fed
staffer and displays a clear understanding of Bitcoin. David also adds
to bitcoin’s long standing debate on whether it is money or a new asset
class. He says,

“even if Bitcoin is not, in my opinion, a particularly ideal monetary
instrument, this does not preclude it from serving as a safe asset or
longer-term store of value.”

Ethereum, a rival currency to Bitcoin, Soars in Value

The New York

ran a detailed piece on the promise of Ethereum, comparing its merits to
Bitcoin. Nathaniel Popper, authored the piece, and made a good case for
why it seems to have got the attention of large banks and tech giants
such as JP Morgan and IBM.

Perhaps there is some fundamental underpinning for its majestic 1000%
rise over 2016, going up from $1 to a $12 high, breaking the feated
$1 billion market cap, second only to BTC at $6 billion. Popper
Joseph Bonneau, a computer science researcher at Stanford

“Bitcoin is still probably the safest bet, but Ethereum is certainly
No. 2, and some folks will say it is more likely to be around in 10
years, It will depend if any real markets develop around it. If there is
some actual application.”

A cashless world is Bullish for Bitcoin


ran an Orwellian inspired article on the cashless global transition that
is underway. Dominic Frisby, talked up the risks of a fully cashless
economy, where, digital money is controlled by the entrenched financial
sector, partly responsible for the 2008 financial crash. Electronic
money controlled by banks, takes away the freedom and privacy of money
that exists today (with cash). Unfortunately, vested interests are
silently waging a war on cash, making every payment traceable,

‘the potential scope for Orwellian levels of surveillance is

While Dominic only mentions Bitcoin once in his OpEd, he subtly makes a
case for true digital cash, which Bitcoin is.

Bitcoin Weekly Price Forecast

This week, price will retrace down from its $427 high, and will likely
find a bottom at $415. This base will form a foundation level to
relaunch and continue an upward trend. A series of higher and higher
lowers should hold $382 on March 5, $403 on March 18, and a high
probability $415 low this coming week. Another leg up should go up to
$438, where a descending triangle trendline is a resistance.

On a medium term perspective, price should soon decisively break out,
latest by mid April. A persistent sideways trend usually forebodes a
break, the current trading range can only last so long. Bollinger bands
are narrowing tight, foreboding an impending significant price move.

$455 is a key level to watch on any upside tests, breaking above it
would be significantly bullish. On the downside, $365 is a crucial
indicator for a potentially bearish turn.

Overall, it is a hard call to make at this juncture and a neutral
forecast for the midterm is reasonable now. This will change with breach
of key levels.

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