The overall Bitcoin price move during the 4th week of the new 2016 is definitely bearish.
After reaching $405.97 during the last hours of the 3rd week, the price started the new week with a stronger decrease during decent trading volumes.
Week 4 Bitcoin Price Behavior
This is the H2 chart of the BTC/USD pair, which embraces the whole last week (Jan 25th – 31st, 2016). The long black bearish line indicates the bearish attitude of Bitcoin during the week. The bullish black line marks the bottoms from Jan 26th to Jan 28th. As you see, the two black lines form a symmetrical triangle, which got broken in the morning of Jan 28th. A big decrease to $375 appeared as a result of the bearish breakout in the triangle. This downward move completed the bearish potential of the figure. After one day of correcting, the price spiked down through the $375 support, creating the weekly low at $363.73.
The next four candles head the price back to the $375 - $380 area. The subsequent price behavior has consolidative character. Bitcoin is currently moving sideways, where a new interaction with the black bearish trend line might occur.
In general, the price move during the last trading week shows us that Bitcoin has no intentions to cancel its downward move.
Let’s now switch to the bigger view of the Bitcoin chart.
H4 BTC/USD Chart
This is the H4 chart of BTC/USD, which covers the period Jan 21th – Jan 31st, 2016. As you can see, the black symmetrical triangle we discussed is even bigger. The bearish breakout through the lower level of the triangle implies that the Bitcoin price has a bigger formation to complete. However, the weekly $363.73 low is not a sufficient target for the black symmetrical triangle. The price needs to drop at least with $6.00 more below the $363.73 low in order to satisfy the target of the triangle.
On the H4 chart the consolidation after the decrease looks like another symmetrical triangle, which we have marked with blue lines on the image above. The symmetrical triangle figure has the potential to push the price toward a bigger move in an unknown direction. This means the Bitcoin price could break upwards through the bearish trend, or the price could enter a new trending move in bearish direction. In this manner, we have two technical reasons to believe that the Bitcoin is more likely to keep decreasing during the upcoming week.
First, we could say that the Bitcoin is already in the area of its bearish trend despite it is not touching it yet. Since the price is currently moving sideways, there is a big chance for another physical interaction with the bearish trend. The H4 chart shows us that this trend line is 4 times tested. Thus, we consider it as a reliable resistance, which can sustain eventual bullish pressure of the price.
Second, as we have already said, the price has to drop below its weekly low in order to complete the already broken black symmetrical triangle. This means, if the price does another drop, it will confirm the smaller blue symmetrical triangle, sending the price toward a new bearish move. This is the second bearish factor which we take into consideration.
In general, the H4 chart speaks of a continuation of the weekly bearish tendency.
Let’s now approach the even bigger picture.
H12 BTC/USD Chart
Above you see the H12 the BTC/USD chart, which embraces the period Dec 26, 2015 – Jan 31, 2016. This chart shows us the origin of the general bearish trend, which we partially investigated on the H2 and the H4 chart. Also, the black bullish line shows us the entire symmetrical triangle, which we discussed in the other two time frames.
It appears that the Bitcoin price is currently testing its bearish trend line for seventh time. Since the bearish trend has resisted the price for six consecutive times, we have a serious reason to believe that another bearish bounce from this level is likely to occur.
The green arrow shows the size of the symmetrical triangle. After the price broke the triangle in bearish direction, the overall odds show that a decrease with the size of the formation might be on its way. If this happens, the price will have two major supports on its way down. The first one is the level, which indicates the bottom at $363.73. The second one is the 2-month low at $352.00. The blue lines and the blue circles on the image above illustrate where these two supports come from.
Bitcoin Weekly Price Forecast
As you can see, all three time frames (H2, H4, and H12) support the bearish idea. Therefore, we consider an eventual bullish break through the bearish trend as an occurrence, which is less likely to appear.
Since the beginning of 2016, the Bitcoin price has been decreasing with a consistent pace and our technical analysis concludes that this attitude will probably keep going. It is a matter of a few candles until the price touches the black bearish trend again. We assume that this will push the price toward another bearish movement. If this happens and the Bitcoin breaks its low at $352.00, the next bigger support will be in the area of $317.00, which marks few bottoms from the middle of November, 2015. However, since this level is pretty far from the current Bitcoin price, we do not see this happening during the upcoming week. The most logical Bitcoin target for week 5 of 2016 is $352.00 and eventual break through this level.
Notice that the H12 trading volumes have been pretty low recently. This means that another volume explosion might currently be on its way. When the volumes increase again it will be up to the bulls and the bears to decide the price direction for the following week. For this reason, stay tuned and prepare for some action!